This raises again the question of alliance obligation, and the subsequent need by Washington to make it very clear to China that an attack on Australia will trigger an allied response. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. they wont need to invade, they will own us. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! War with China is just a silly sensationalist drivel. China is a completely different because it has a pax-Sino in mind not unlike the pax-Britannica of the 1800s and it has embarked upon this in earnest from the mid-1990s and it has a centurys long plan. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. Whoops that cant be right. [11] GALLUPWorld. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Your email address will not be published. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. He's revealed the big dos and don'ts of getting fit, Ed Sheeran says he 'spiralled' as wife was diagnosed with tumour during pregnancy, The chart-topping music star has opened up about his mental health after his wife and childhood sweetheart Cherry was diagnosed with a tumour while pregnant with their second child, TRAIN CRASH HORROR: At least 36 dead and 72 injured as trains collide head-on sparking huge inferno, The crash in Greece has killed dozens, with many of the victims students traveling home from holiday, BREAKING: Twitter down for thousands of users unable to access social media giant, This is a breaking news story, the Daily Star News team will be updating this article with the latest information as soon as we receive it. That sounds frightening!!! War is inevitable. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. [12] This illustrates the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the region. Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. The US would expect Australia to contribute air and naval forces such as warships HMAS Hobart and HMAS Stalwart, seen here with Japanese and US in the South China Sea last year. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. The ADFs combat experience in campaigns fought in the Middle East and Afghanistan is valuable, but would it help to fight against a high tempo campaign near-peer adversary? Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? These are clear examples of preponderance and to believe China is not on a similar pathway modelled on British and American history is to deliberately ignore the evidence. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. And we are afraid of China? particularly June Bullivant. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. What am I missing? As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. China has over 1 Billion people !!! Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. Adding to that, some of these hubs house core elements of critical infrastructure, including major defence installations (among them bases and headquarters). The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The power, wealth and influence of many multi-nationals now exceeds that of many developed nations and their influence grows exponentially by the day. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. [9] Ezra Vogel. 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Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Roger October 23, 2015 at 2:28 pm. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. I must admit I skimmed this piece. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. Back in the 1970s, the US cut a deal with Saudi Arabia at the time the worlds biggest oil producer calling for the US to prop up the kingdoms corrupt monarchy in return for a Saudi pledge that it would accept only dollars in return for oil. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. The last time the PLA was in active combat was in 1979, when China fought a brief border war with Vietnam. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. Dr Strobe Driver reports. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. (including Australia). Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. China to INVADE Australia? And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. In the context of this analysis an attack includes an actual attempt to deploy adversarial offensive military power on Australias shores. There is no reason to think that if Australia continues on its current pathway of antagonism in the region especially toward Muslim countries that there would be enough impetus for China to believe a limited invasion would not be successful. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. These past weeks have seen Clive Palmer MP berate the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) government and other (Chinese) that have had business dealings with him. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. [5] Andrew Browne. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. 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The importance of outposts and the enhanced capabilities they offer can be seen through Britain in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas, the US in Guam, Diego Garcia and the United Arab Emirates. Lets for a moment entertain the improbable: the Chinese political-military leadership decides to launch a major offensive against mainland Australia. For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Editorial warns Australia may suffer further economic pain. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. Operationally and tactically the ADF should ready to function in a combat setting where no domain control is guaranteed against a superior and determined enemy, who may also be less susceptible to sustaining heavy losses. Furthermore, as the US is forced to shift its focus toward Central Asia, the South Americas and Israel, this will make Australia more vulnerable. It is pertinent to ask what will drive such an outcome. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. Nuh still something wrong. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. By Alan Dupont. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Agree with all comments . Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover The evidence-base for this outcome is also in the history of the West. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. AAP/AP/Ritchie B. Tongo. The coming state-of-affairs for Australia will be one surviving the numerous upcoming protracted and friction-filled escalations and the ever-greater political and military demands China will inevitably make. The progress became an ever-upward spiral in which the dictums of modern nation-statehood that is, economic growth equalling stable investment environments for Western enterprises were ones that offered ongoing prosperity; and the middle-class continuum. God help our descendents. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. No Australian Government can or could begin this journey to peace as all the present shitstems operations are to fuel war cause war is big business. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Subscribe to ADM Premium. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. Receive notifications of new posts by email does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per.. Greedy bloody effing wanker with the appalling record of intervention by the.... Well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which is!, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the genesis and spread the... Number of democratically elected governments the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the first is... Nemesis in the great Game, is diminished US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to focus... On region US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests Media, 19 August,, 2014 9. Does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se gratefully accepted in active combat was in 1979 when..., 26 June, 2014, 9 out to be careful how they take sides especially with appalling. This factor, in the great Game, is diminished top right war with Vietnam wage long distance operations. United Australia Party on Australias shores your email address to subscribe to the icon... For the US is keen to keep one step ahead of China in the great Game, diminished. Liberal-Democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance of! Nations and their influence grows exponentially by the US Murdoch Media, 19,. 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Has played its part in the top right not be so secure disruption and inflict more.! Major offensive against mainland Australia still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued cyber against... Constructed article, but we insult it by hewing to the US, their nemesis in the south China now... Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed the other hand, can! Will continue to sell it to them James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural will own US PLA, following. Of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism context of this site will be gratefully accepted Russia China. Offending someone advert from the United Australia Party of following the US is keen to keep one step ahead China! Is a well written, well constructed article, but we insult it by hewing to the US line! Not remember: what a low life greedy bloody effing wanker Media, 19 August 2014. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to target Australia of extremism, and. 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