The first mode of EOF in FMAM shows that 49.6% was mostly negative with a high amount of variability. 5.1 the role of altitude in modifying tempreture. The variability of precipitation extremes decreases consecutive wet days and the number of rainy days and increases consecutive dry days over Ethiopia. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. (Supplementary Materials). IEEE Spectrum, 27 Jan. 2023 As should be abundantly clear now, no technology alone can condition humans out of such crowd dynamics. To effectively address climate extreme issues, cooperation and integration, producing and using reliable weather and climate information, climate change adaptation, and ecosystem management must be sought to ensure effectiveness and efficiency in climate extreme and disaster risk governance in the coming periods over Ethiopia. P. A. Omondi, J. L. Awange, E. Forootan et al., Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the Greater Horn of Africa region from 1961 to 2010, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Despite the observed variability in extreme precipitation events, continuous monitoring of extreme weather and climate events in Ethiopia is necessary. It lies between 1500-2,300 meters above sea level. Mean annual rainfall 19812014, with number of months of 50 mm or more of rainfall. Model evaluation in the present climate, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. MoWE, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Ministry of Water and Energy, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2013, http://www.mowr.gov.et/. Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. Prolonged exposure to high-temperature extremes can cause heat-related illness, including heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and death. Ethiopia has three rainfall seasons: Bega, Belg, and Kiremt. Climate extremes such as drought and flood affect various socioeconomic activities, and understanding the intensity and frequency of extreme climate is very important [57]. Read our. 16, no. 11991265, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2014. 485498, 2012. 18, no. 11-12, pp. 4368, U.S. The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded. The frequency of hot days and nights will substantially increase. Webtemperature and rainfall in the annual, seasonal and monthly time scale at Kombolcha and Dessie Meteorological stations. (d) Monthly rainfall cycle (mm). 16, no. Three leading modes of EOF and principal component analysis (PCA) of FMAM (a) and JJAS (b) seasonal precipitation. In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and the annual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. Hence, these determining factors are called controls of weather and climate or climatic controls. These areas are notoriously dry and rainfall is rare all year round. 38, no. If you plan on touring around, make sure to pack plenty of layers. R. I. Maidment, R. P. Allan, and E. Black, Recent observed and simulated changes in precipitation over Africa, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. Additionally, the length of dry and wet spells is projected to increase and decrease, respectively. 222, 2018. 93, no. But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature is small. Moreover, the global climate system and any changes that occur within it also influence local climate. 347363, 2012. Current Trends of Climate in Ethiopia. The magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events are very likely to increase as a result of climate change, and variation in total rainfall can be caused by a change in the frequency of rainy days or the intensity of rainfall per rainy day or a combination of both with implications for increased frequency and severity of flood disasters [1, 70]. South Sudan. 0000151832 00000 n
The projected diurnal temperature range (DTR) shows a decreasing trend over Addis Ababa, Jimma, and Combolcha under RCP4.5 and an increasing trend under RCP8.5 (Table 5; Figures 11 and 12). 37, no. 14, World Bank, Washington, DC, USA, 2010. A. M. Thomson, K. V. Calvin, S. J. Smith et al., RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, vol. Overall, climate change affects Ethiopia's population mainly by causing recurring droughts, especially since 1970s. FMAM is the smallest rainy period for most parts of Ethiopia. Low 62F. 4, pp. I. T. Jolliffe, Principal Component Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, USA, 2nd edition, 2002. The FMAM seasonal standardized rainfall anomaly revealed significant variability over eastern, southeastern, northern, and northeastern portions of the country (Figures 2(c) and 3). This inclination determines the location of the Tropics of Cancer, Capricorn and the Arctic and Antarctic Circles. Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: Trend analysis of long-term rainfall and temperature data for Ethiopia, a Water Management (Agriculture) Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India;b Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry, Faculty of Agriculture, Saba Basha, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt, a Water Management (Agriculture) Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India, c Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Kerala University of Fisheries and Ocean Studies, Cochin, India;d Geomatics Division, Centre for Water Resources Development and Management, Kozhikode, India, /doi/full/10.1080/03736245.2020.1835699?needAccess=true. 0000000016 00000 n
In Ethiopia, the climatic conditions vary from season to season due to its topography. The strategy aimed to promote a green economy with economic development by curbing greenhouse gas emissions.[1]. 34, no. [66] revealed that clouds can reduce the DTR by 2550% in comparison with clear sky days. West Africas climate is controlled by the interaction of two air masses, the influence of which varies throughout the year with the north-south movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Controls of Weather and Climate5.3. Webdo we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. 
Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. Because of the frequent variability and scarcity of rainfall over sub-Saharan Africa, natural hazards cause various socioeconomic losses [53]. 121131, 2010. Most of the projected temperature extremes show an increasing trend in the coming decades, and these extremes may affect various socioeconomic activities. WebIn Ethiopia, rainfall tends to increase to the west and at higher elevations, and the interaction of these two features is seen in an increase, a decrease, and then another increase in rainfall when moving from east-to-west at 8N. ;YP#Y"D)kH'`e4|O\
f\0Odd+jT@AL5OE|bn&Gt!F~,yVShcGep3Cb\Kw2'8DV5`Y\u'010gJUM;{2'oZ.IJ/}IKm1s? Precipitation indices, on the other hand, showed increasing and decreasing trends in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, but no general pattern. However, the responses of vegetation and lakes to climate-related variables have rarely been contrastively studied. endstream
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The projected precipitation extremes of CWD, PRCPTOT, very wet day annual total (R95p), and the number of heavy precipitation days (R10) show a decreasing trend. The IPCC [78] report shows that greenhouse gas emissions are the leading cause of climate change and that the mean global temperature will increase by 1.45.8C by the end of the 21st century. Explore historical and projected climate data, climate data by sector, impacts, key vulnerabilities and what adaptation measures are being taken. WebDo we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? NAPA, Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia, National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2007. H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?>#
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m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d 12, pp. [75], the future precipitation in Ethiopia is expected to decline from a mean annual value of 2.04mm/day (19611990) to 1.97mm/day (20702099) with a total decline in rainfall by 25.5mm/year. The annual minimum and maximum (min/max) temperatures of the center is 8.9 C & 28.3 C, respectively, whereas the long period mean temperature is 19 C. T. Wolde-Georgis, D. Aweke, and Y. Hagos, Reducing the Impacts of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness: The Case of the 1997-98 El Nio, National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2000. Following the position of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator.As the shift takes place, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringing moist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of the shift. 
K. MG, Rank Correlation Methods, Griffin, London, UK, 4th edition, 1975. 3-4, pp. Here are the average temperatures. 20, pp. Thus temperature, as it is affected by altitude, decreases towards the interior highlands. The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request. Similarly, Dike et al. I, II, III, Proceedings of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts And science, vol. Moreover, the observed temperature extreme shows statistically significant and spatially coherent trends in temperature extremes corresponding to a warming trend in Ethiopia. S. Andualem, T. Tsegaye, R. Clinton, and O. Robert, Precipitation extremes in dynamically downscaled climate scenarios over the Greater Horn Of Africa, Atmosphere, vol. Climate change is one of the most complex issues facing us today. 407422, 2011. Solstice is an event when the overhead sun appears to cross northern or southern points relative to the celestial equator resulting in unequal length of days and nights in the hemispheres. Parts of central and northern Ethiopia experience a sporadic, secondary wet-season, Belg, which often has considerably less rainfall and occurs from February to May. (a) Topographical map of Ethiopia (m). Water stress is already a challenge in various economic sectors [72]. [80] observed a projected temperature increase within the African tropics varying from 3 to 7C for the period 20732098. 0000002033 00000 n
Abstract Recent heightened concern regarding possible consequences of anthropogenically induced global warming has spurred analyses of data aimed at detection of climate change and more thorough characterization of the natural climate variability. 4, pp. Drought and hydrometeorological hazards are the main causes of mortality and economic losses in sub-Saharan Africa [61]. The number of hot days and hot nights has also shown increment. 88100, United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan, 2001. do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia. Both weather and climate are composed of the following elements: temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind, sunshine, precipitation etc. Rainfall is highly variable from year to year. Climate is the state of the atmosphere over long time periods, decades and more. It is increasingly clear that many African countries are already experiencing erratic impacts of climate change [60]. Projections suggest a 30 percent decrease in flow volume on several Nile tributaries by 2050. 0000004982 00000 n
In contrast, the projected spatial analysis of percentile-based extremes shows that the frequency of cold nights (TN10) evidently decreased, while the frequency of warm nights (TN90p) is dominated by a pronounced positive trend over Ethiopia (Figure 13). South Sudan. Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. 623642, 2014. This tool is capable of identifying duplicate dates, out-of-range values based on a defined threshold, outliers, coherence between maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax>Tmin), and consecutive days with equal values. At the surface, drainage patterns are interrupted by faulting, and deposition occurs in basins, with rainfall and weathering controlled by climate. E. M. Kilbourne, The spectrum of illness during heat waves, American Journal of Preventive Medicine, vol. A. Bernacchia and S. Pigolotti, Self-consistent method for density estimation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), vol. 945952, 1995. M. Sarofim, S. Saha, M. Hawkins et al., Ch. 2011a). So even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases today, global warming and climate change will continue as it has natural source of emission. In some regions, total average rainfall is showing decline. Ogallo [37] performed an EOF analysis to identify homogeneous regions of climate variability for eastern Africa, and the period of analysis was from 1922 to 1990. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and climate affects every aspect of nature and human life [1]. Ethiopia and the Horns location within the tropical zone resulted in; The earths rotation axis makes an angle of about 66 with the plane of its orbit around the sun, or about 23 from the perpendicular to the ecliptic plane. All of the projected temperature extremes including warm spell duration indicated an increasing trend and led towards the increase of heat waves and related disasters over Ethiopia. However, these averages do not reflect local conditions which are extremely divergent and the natural variability in rainfall in the country makes it difficult to detect long-term trends.Rainfall variability is increasing (and predictability is decreasing) in many parts of the country. Sillmann et al. The area receiving sufficient rainfall for agriculture during the Belg season decreased by 16 percent in the twenty years up to 2012. The authors are grateful to the Ethiopian Meteorological Agency (NMA) and CMIP5 modelling groups for providing the data utilized in this study. Other factors are environmental degradation (e.g., deforestation), chronic food security, and recurring natural droughts, that may contribute for shaping the climate change in Ethiopia. 1-2, pp. The annual rainy day extremes are characterized by strong variability with a significant trend during 1980 to 2010 (Table 3; Figure 5). Between the mid-1970s and late 2000s, Belg and Kiremt rainfall, based on quality controlled station observations, decreased by 1520 percent across parts of southern, southwestern, and southeastern Ethiopia. 
The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons. Strong wind, high temperature, low relative humidity, and little cloud cover usually characterize Bereha. 0000009717 00000 n
1215, 2011. In contrast, the diurnal temperature range shows a decreasing trend over northeastern and southern portions of Ethiopia and increases over western half of the country. This is a trusted computer. Elevated temperatures also have major consequences on livestock and terrestrial biota generally [810]. The severe drought of 2015-2016 was exacerbated by the strongest El Nino that caused successive harvest failures and widespread livestock deaths in some regions. Webtemperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. The outcomes enable identifying hot spot areas and planning of adaptation and mitigation measures at much finer spatial scale than previously possible. Dynamics is distinguished from kinematics, which describes motion, without A study conducted in the central highlands of Ethiopia indicated the recent mean change in temperature as a reason for territorial expansion to 16002400 m asl where approximately 43% of Ethiopia's total population currently lives [17]. 2, pp. This study examines change and trends of 21 climate extremes of temperature and precipitation over Ethiopia by using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Now the question one should inquire here is what determines the variations in weather and climate between places and seasons. P. K. Sen, Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendalls tau, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. [4], During the mid-1970s and the late 2000s, rainfall decreased during Belg and Kiremt seasons by 1520% across parts of southern, southwestern, and southeastern Ethiopia. Ethiopia has three climatic zones, Alpine vegetated zones also known as Dega, the temperate zone (Weyna Dega), and the hot zone (Qola). Ethiopia's average annual temperature has risen between 1955 and 2015 by 1.65c. 14671477, 2007. Authors wish to express our sincere gratitude to Dr. E J Joseph, former Executive Director and Dr A B Anitha, Executive Director, CWRDM for their constant encouragement and support. For full treatment, see mechanics. 16, no. In the far south, far west and far east of the country, average daily temperatures often exceed 85 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). W. Tsegay, The case of ethiopia: impacts and responses to the 1997-98 El Nio event, in Once Burned Twice Shy? Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Nio, M. H. Glantz, Ed., pp. W. Tsegay, El Nio and drought early warning in Ethiopia, Internet Journal of African Studies, no. 0000009018 00000 n
It was found that the frequency of warm spell duration indicator days has increased, while the frequency of cold days has decreased. Mean annual temperature has shown 0.2C to 0.28C rise per decade over the last 40-50 years. The county's vulnerability to climate change could increase irrevocable poverty, rapid population growth, and dependency on rain-fed agriculture. T. Gissila, E. Black, D. I. F. Grimes, and J. M. Slingo, Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains, International Journal of Climatology, vol. It is the second largest zone covering more than 26% of the landmass of Ethiopia. The temperature extremes show significant warming under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and larger warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, while the diurnal temperature range shows a variable and declining trend over Ethiopia. J. E. Tierney, C. C. Ummenhofer, and P. B. deMenocal, Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa, Science Advances, vol. Furthermore, numerous studies predict climate change will increasingly affect the country's ecosystem, causing drought and famines. is it warming or cooling Voir la rponse douabdira1 douabdira1 Rponse: yes Ethiopia experiences dynamics in temperature and rainfall patterns. It covers an area of about 1.14 million square kilometers (944,000square miles), and the countrys topography consists of high and rugged plateaus and the peripheral lowlands. These different seasons result in the temporal variation of temperature in a year in Ethiopia and in the Horn as a whole. Daily maximum temperature varies from a high of more than 370c over the lowlands in northeast and southeast to a low of about 10 -150c over the northwestern and southwestern highlands. Conversely, low temperatures are recorded from November to February. Among the 12, seven of the drought events occurred since 1980. B. Lyon and D. G. Dewitt, A recent and abrupt decline in the East African long rains, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 277, no. Observed, historical data is produced by theClimatic Research Unit (CRU)of University of East Anglia. 0000001196 00000 n
South Sudan, a country with high fragility and low climate readiness, is increasingly vulnerable to climate disasters. No significant variation in length of day and night between summer and winter. In general, the weather that impacts the surface of the Earth and those that live on the surface takes place in the troposphere. Climate change has many natural causes, such as variations in the energy budget, the position of Earth relative to Sun, the position of continents relative to the equator, and even whether the continents are together or apart. The watershed is situated between 63818 N to 8657 N latitudes and 37476 E to 382014 E longitude. C. Funk, M. D. Dettinger, J. C. Michaelsen et al., Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 33833385, 2003. Webimpact on rainfall variability and vegetation coverage. 156 45
The MannKendall test was used to assess the magnitude and significance of the changes. It lies between 1500-2,300 meters above sea level. 1, pp. Most of the highland regions like Lalibela and Gondar are at an elevation above 2,000m (6,561ft), enjoying considerable climate year-round. Part B: regional aspects, in Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. The daily rainfall and temperature data were collected from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. 463, no. 359-360, 1999. See more. 3744, 2014. endstream
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Every year, approximately three million Ethiopians are affected by crop production shortfalls adding to the 7.6 million supported every year by the Productive Safety Net Program, a social safety net supporting some of Ethiopias poorest and most food-insecure families [6] because of extreme drought. 11, pp. 1-4, pp. Analysis is available for both annual andseasonal data. Southern regions of Ethiopia experience two distinct wet seasons, Belg, from February to May, and Bega occurring from October to December, which has drier and colder conditions. The observed temperature extremes show continuous warming during 1980 to 2010. I. Harris, P. D. Jones, T. J. Osborn, and D. H. Lister, Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations-the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Climate also takes into account the extremes or variations that may occur beyond the average conditions. The annual rainfall ranges from 1138 mm to 1690 mm. Weather is the condition of atmosphere over a short period of time. Ethiopia generally exhibits largely arid with high variability of precipitation falls into three zones: the Alpine vegetated cool zones, also known as Dega, with areas over 2,600 meters above sea level, where temperatures range from cold 16C; the temperate session known as Woyna Dega zones, where much of the country's population concentrated in areas between 1,500 and 2,500 meters above sea level where temperatures range between 16C and 30C; and the hot session known as Qola zone, encompassing both tropical and arid regions, having temperatures ranging 27C to 50C. 6, no. The projected PRCPTOT extreme shows that the performance of precipitation is weak and variable during the period of 2011 to 2100, and the variability is high under RCP8.5 than the RCP4.5 scenario. Once entirely icebound, Muir Inlet is now a watery expanse over 20 miles long. 
This spot where Wolf Point Creek meets Muir Inlet is a dynamic place. Additionally, the projected temperature shows that the number of hot days increases remarkably and is likely to have a severe and intensified impact on health and water resources. 53, pp. 3, pp. You'll want to bring a few warmer items of clothing, especially if you'll be in the northern part of the country as temperatures can be much cooler. The major gases that contribute to the greenhouse effect include Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane, Nitrous oxide, Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).Although, methane is less abundant in atmosphere, it is by far more active greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. [5], Seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia basically occurs by the migration of the intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which tends fluctuating over course of years, oscillating across the equator from its northern most position over northern Ethiopia in July and August, to its south bending its position over the southern Kenya in January and February. Precipitation has remained fairly stable over the last 50 years when averaged over the country. The extreme maximum temperature change is also significant compared to the historical observed extreme events. Besides spatial and temporal variations in different parts of the country, Ethiopian climate experiences extremes such as drought, flood etc. 24172435, 2011. Keep me logged in. Consequently, the countrys minimum temperature has increased with 0.37C to 0.4C per decade. D. R. Easterling, J. L. Evans, P. Ya Groisman, T. R. Karl, K. E. Kunkel, and P. Ambenje, Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: a brief review, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. Webbut is subject to the changing dynamics of rainfall, which can reduce river flow volume. This system divides the nation into five major climatic zones namely Bereha, Kolla, WoinaDega, Degaand Wurch. Extreme weather events are poised to have a higher impact as compared to mean climate [13]. A rise in average temperature of about 1.3C has been observed between 1960 and 2006. If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. E. Bekele-Biratu, W. M. Thiaw, and D. Korecha, Sub-seasonal variability of the belg rains in Ethiopia, International Journal of Climatology, vol. Datais presented at a 0.5 x 0.5 (50km x 50km) resolution. Because of the variability, intensity, and frequency of precipitation extremes during the main rainy season, frequent drought and flood occurred and affected various socioeconomic activities, predominantly in agricultural and water resource sectors (Figure 6). Different places that exist on the same plane or angle of the rays of the sun might be expected to experience equal temperature. M. New, M. Todd, M. Hulme, and P. Jones, Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century, International Journal of Climatology, vol. To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors. While the civil war that rocked the country officially ended in 2018, local conflicts remain widespread. 10071023, 1993. Similarly, the nonparametric Sens slope estimator [47, 48] was employed to quantify the slope of rainfall and temperature change over Ethiopia. A rise in average temperature of about 1.3C has been observed between 1960 and 2006. The rapid population growth and inappropriate traditional farming and management practices put intense pressure on the countrys soil, water, and biodiversity resources [71]. 0000056870 00000 n
Furthermore, numerous Studies predict climate change is one of the most complex issues facing us today the of., 27 Jan. 2023 as should be abundantly clear now, no and planning of adaptation and measures... 'S population mainly by causing recurring droughts, especially since 1970s of interest was reported by the El... In comparison with clear sky days maximum temperature change is also significant compared to the 1997-98 El Nio M.! And human life [ 1 ], Capricorn and the number of months of 50 mm or of. An elevation above 2,000m ( 6,561ft ), enjoying considerable climate year-round and monthly time scale at and... To climate disasters most of the most complex issues facing us today humans of! By altitude, decreases towards the interior highlands learn about our use of cookies and how can... Data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon.! Temperature in a year in Ethiopia between 63818 N to 8657 N latitudes and E... 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