The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . google_ad_type = "text_image"; The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. n$L{Z. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. levels. Detailed Map of Powell If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. %%EOF The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. We are 37% through the Water Year. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. 04:12 - Source: CNN The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Credit: Alex Hager. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. But it is concerning. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. google_color_url = "426C95"; The Colorado Sun is a journalist-owned, award-winning news outlet based in Denver that strives to cover all of Colorado so that our state our community can better understand itself. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. google_color_text = "000000"; The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. //2006-10-04: news The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9 Water supply forecast volumes decreased across most of the region, Moser said during the webinar. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. 192 0 obj <>stream 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports monthly forecasts become more accurate. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. What's the weather forecast for 2050? The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. hbbd``b`$WX)! That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. WEco is funded by multiple donors. 159 0 obj <> endobj The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. By Leia Larsen. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Flight Center. 0 Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. hb```)," The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Much of that water. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H . google_ad_height = 600; Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. 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