Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. Do you seriously think that corruption is not a big deal in first-world countries? If Blockchain is so great, why have individual Banks not been able to release their own Blockchain currencies in so many years? January 10, 2018, 11:01 am. theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. Ms99to1percent Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. We still need banks for other forms of financial services such as loans, investments, business services, etc.. Will Bitcoin replace that, too? rollie fingers Its a complete rip off. January 3, 2018, 12:21 pm. So just like you say theres nothing stopping you from creating your own Bitcoin, its the same code.unless you could attract hundreds of millions of dollars of computing power to ensure data integrity on your blockchain, its as worthless as your nail clippings. However, some cryptocurrencies DO have intrinsic value, which is computational power. January 2, 2018, 9:18 pm, MMM, heres a calculator that updates to show the real time profitability of mining various coins: Youre not going to get rich by collecting metals, but you might stay rich with them. I know have around $20k in crpyto having invested around $3500. Why should it not be? Even some cryptocurrencies that currently exist. No. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache January 2, 2018, 6:01 pm. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. Its totally different when you lose your money by yourself. This is certainly a correct analysis Mr. Mustache. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? Bitcoin has very little potential for the long term. Complaints and insults generally wont make the cut here, but by all means write them on your own blog! Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. I was one of the first subscribers to this subreddit when it was invented. The reason that people have never owned their own money as you inelegantly put it, is because there is no full faith and credit under this model. So just relax, lean into it, and grow rich with me. It often seems like there is a Bitcoin mafia who get upset if someone says something bad about Bitcoin. This is a known bug in our operating system, and we have designed some parts of our society to protect us against it. Well then Biglaw Investor, youd better stop using websites or stop supporting any company that does big data research, because thats consuming considerably more electricity and its not fundamentally vital to us existing. But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? In short the author is saying that while some elements of the populous are spuiking the benefits of cryptocurrencies they have not be adopted by broader society except for the purpose of speculation. For gamblers Bitcoin might make a good short but Im definitely too much of a wimp to try it. All technology goes through a bit of a curve where new technologies have multiple competitors and slowly they formulate around standards and a smaller core group of players. http://whattomine.com/ So long as you have the self control / personality to only invest what you can easily afford to lose and to not let it consume your time and energy (not true of most people but more so mustachians) then there seems to be a potentially large upside. Bitcoins will never degrade over time, your fingernails degrade. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Id argue strongly that its a good thing. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. Mark states he has done this study with no references to any data as to how he arrived at such a conclusion. What usually happens when this occurs? Mr. Mustache. Not everyone agrees, but it cannot, unlike cryptos, be regarded as stupid. I have been hearing Bitcoin is a scam and a bubble since the time it was 200 bucks! It is already in Beta testing and will be released this year. Over 3.5 billion people have no internet access; I am sure this is true as I thoroughly researched it for a chapter I published in a book this year. January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. January 23, 2018, 12:50 am, Why Mr. Money Mustache is wrong and Nassim Taleb is right about Bitcoin: https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614. Then in November I sold it and bought GBTC, which is a OTC fund holding bitcoins. Ron Cameron And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! I really enjoyed the MMM article but I strongly disagreed with the part about gold. Or maybe you dont understand how exchanges work. As of now, BTC has none of those characteristics. remittances, credit lending for undocumented people. (As Ronnie Chieng says, What IS it!?!?). In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. And if you havent been digging into the cryptocurrency world much, it gets way weirder than this. Looks like I made a big mistake then. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. Here's the one I like: 25x the annual amount you spend/4% of your assets. Priced in gold, they are still down more than 60%. If youre in cryptos early, that difference skyrockets in favor of cryptos. I did Control F, and verified that MMM never used the word Ponzi or Pyramid, and in fact Vijay, you were the first person to bring up the Ponzi Scheme topic, and then you linked some article (which I did not care to read). So by definition we need to start talking about things that dont exist yet because they *cant* exist without immutable blockchains. Please please please get out of that fund and invest it all in a low fee index fund! The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. A lot of jobs today exists only to oversee things. January 3, 2018, 7:36 am. Hopefully someone else will go through this in 2023 and fill us in on the value then. Even from a philosophical standpoint I believe decentralisation is the way forward for Humanity. I agree Jay. As such, its an awful means of trade. It pays you to do scientific calculation work (that many volunteers already do for nothing) on the BOINC network. Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. Cest la vie. In my personal opinion, Bitcoin just seems like another form of a financial institution that is trying to say its not an institution when it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck so it must be a bank, no?! Its only valuable when you cash it out to a real currency again, like the US dollar, and use it to buy something useful like a nice house or a business. But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. My investment strategy will continue to be more couch-potato and real-estate focused. Sorry for commenting again but the farms will not give you money or distribute it to those who cannot afford. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? And a currency thats not used for transactions isnt a real currency. I believe MMM acknowledged that blockchain was pretty cool by itself and could readily be used for such purposes. South Koreans are NOT moving all their currency in to Bitcoins. A currency that unstable cant be realistically used for transactions, even if you forget about its other limitations. Doingone transaction burns 215 kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to run the entire MMM household for more than a full month, or to power an electric car formore than 800 miles of driving. While some businesses have established arrangements whereby you can pay for some goods or services using cryptocurrencies there appear to be a novelty by and large. Read your history, it happens occasionally. I would recommend everyone to do their own research because many of what MMM says is plain wrong. Because it is. Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? It takes an open, transparent society that trusts its elected officials to do RIGHT. The thing that stopped me is that shorting it is a *pain in the ass*. Either way it wont end badly right? Not just stupid, insane. MMM writes things like currency should not be artificially sparse and should expand. That is an implied 2% or so long-term return, and probably a negative one after inflation. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. If that is the case, their values are strictly driven by speculative bidding, making them the worst sort of investment. Whether you should get out is a difficult question. It can be laundered. So every time I say Bitcoin/altcoins are a stupid idea, I chuckle. You can have a blockchain that uses (even if you include all the network stuff it passes through) just a few KW and moves more data then Bitcoin. Yes, you can hedge in other things, but gold is fungible, dividable, small enough to hide, and has been valuable for centuries. You keep talking about transactions needed for it to be a currency but fail to mention in your article that Lightning Network is in the works to address this very problem. For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? ie beauty counter for nerds. Thats cool. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? But thats just the start. Why do I trust the dollar? Scott Nicholson Keep plenty for yourself. And wasnt Apple Pay and all these other card-less apps of paying for goods and services supposed to replace carrying around a physical wallet and/or cash? Bitcoin CANNOT shelter you, pay dividends nor feed you. Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. The price went on a historic and seemingly unstoppable run all the way to $150 per barrel in 2008. I own my currency as it is today (EUR and USD), how come you do not own yours? But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. Its diversification. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. Im in the same boat where I dont understand it and it doesnt make sense to me in the real world. A boy named Sue I can only assume the grief the internet trolls will give you on this as they defend their virtual Bitcoin pile. I have seen several bubbles grow and then burst, and one thing you learn is that an actual bubble rises like crazy and then totally pops. This might be normal for an era such as this, where the growth is coming from real tech companies instead of widget makers. Mr. Money Mustache is a thirty-something retiree who now writes about how we can all live a frugal, yet awesome, life of leisure. Buying real estate, gold, stocks, even ETFs and Bitcoins, all of these have risk. Governments have no choice here. As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. Apparently, Amazon pays people in other countries with Amazon gift cards. I dont mind people investing in Bitcoin because its not my money. Is it possible youre confusing the message of this article? The good news is that more transactions alone wouldnt raise the energy cost (although more transactions are currently impossible anyway), and if Bitcoin raised the price of electricity in one country it would probably just cause people to mine somewhere else. The real backing of the dollar is the force the U.S. government will use if its debts are called in. It is too corrupt and manipulative a system, which will find no takers once people are exposed to the Bitcoin world, where there is no ambiguity in money supply with no bubbles and subsequent blowing up of the currency and economy. Having interest rates all the way down to near 0% without a good exit plan should give you some pause how much you want to trust these people. http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/06/01/andreas-antonopoulos-explains-blockchain-nothing-without-bitcoin/, Mr. Frugal Toque if they dont open one day, the fragile world crumbles. This way you will be truly rich in 5 years. January 3, 2018, 4:42 pm. The act of speculating on an asset is what drives it to its proper price; they are critical players in the process of price discovery. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. January 3, 2018, 9:49 am. (Or computers or spaceships.) January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. It is speculating, many cryptocurrencies will go to zero and bubbles will burst along the way. You can even have a social media/blogging site based on a blockchain, like steem/steemit. You respond with an implied personal insult. I understand the concept of having an idea, building business around it with angel investors and later going public where you and I can invest but I dont understand investing in something like XRP. Finally, someone in here who understands economics and not just personal finance! Videos about Personal Finance, Early Retirement, and Other Stuff. Rule of thumb is never put everything in one basket. Why is the author so angry about this fact? And like investing in anything, its not a matter of altruism if Im right about the continuity of value in blockchains as measured by the value of its underlying currency, Ill see a healthy return on my investment. They always do. This is yet another extreme example. But how do you know youre investing in Amazon, and not Pets.com? Because of this, newspapers start reporting on prices daily, triggering so many tales of instant riches that you notice even your barber and your massage therapist are offering tips on how to invest in this new asset class. Gold may be irrational, if you insist that it is. Anyway, what would he dump it for? Thats what happens when a real bonafide bubble bursts. Anyway, in real terms, US stocks have been in a secular bear market since 1999. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. Also, what is the source of that study? Blockchain is just a computer protocol, which allows two people (or machines) to do transactions even if they dont trust each other or the network between them. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. The blockchain is only 1 part of Bitcoin. At least theyre cute and the grand kids like them! January 4, 2018, 7:28 am. Bitcoins etc does not make it easier at all. Let it get to 10 Trillion + in a couple or so years and then you come back talking about its stability! Brent Weaver This is why bitcoin was created in the first place. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. I agree that Bitcoin isnt an investment. But boy, are you wrong on this one. Full anonymity and government evasion will not be one of its features. Here's my direct negative experience with Pete, Mr. Money Mustache that may give insight into the MMM divorce. (Aside from the threats of force that stem from legal tender laws.). How much of your net worth is in this investment? Thats not a bubble, but something else entirely. Maybe a couple years from now when the mortgage is paid off and we have some play money/money we can afford to lose. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. Guys. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. One reason why everyone is piling money into BTC and other crypto might be because the stock market is way too expensive right now. But the fantasy that the world will switch to Bitcoin so you'll need it to conduct commerce so you better get yours now is just totally implausible to me. I agree with you. You know things arent a good investment when there are Bitcoin ATMs at bars. January 3, 2018, 7:59 am. Tulips? A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. Why would anyone do business with a medium of exchange that is accountable to nobody? Bubbles or Tulip Mania as you put it dont do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009. No bubble lasts that long and keeps growing exponentially. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. So, we usually get $100 to $200 worth of stuff all at once. Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you do believe the technology is the future. Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. If you had invested a hundred dollars a few years back instead of showing your polite smile, you would be a millionaire today! But there are interesting aspects to the technology and what it could develop into. This way, whichever direction GBTC goes, you wont be in a regretful situation. Andy Stow An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? You can give up that wet dream right now. Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache (Bitcoin Crypto & Financial Independence). This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent. Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. At the moment, theyre incredibly volatile compared to the monetary systems of the developed world. Then I came to my senses and realized that I only want to make money providing value to society. I agree with you, Chris. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. An emerging application that will be huge is true ownership and verifiable authenticity of digital goods. A boy named Sue Then they go on Twitter and demand that Mr. Money Mustache apologize to his followers for telling them that speculating on future frisbee prices is not a good idea. On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. A stock is a share of an actual company, bound by rules and regs (however imperfectly administered, at least they exist). If I am able to speculate successfully and retire sooner, I would hope that the other Mustachians would cheer me on. This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about, Mr. Money Mustache. When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates often very quickly. But it also has some ideology built in the assumption that giving national governments the ability to monitor flows of money in the financial system and use it as a form of law enforcement is wrong. We live in a world where both can, do and will exist. =. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) That said, I did buy $300 of Bitcoin back in November (which is a tiny fraction of a percentage of our net worth) on the off chance it keeps escalating like crazy. Read your history, it happens occasionally even in the great USA (a few times actually). Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? The Ramsey Show. An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. I am not a millionaire either or have any heavy investments in any of this and I am not certainly looking to grow my investments by commenting on a blog, of all places! The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. It is a commodity. 3. However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. Banks and elites will remain even with Bitcoin, and if it goes your way it will probably the miningfarms and people who collect the most. Its not as simple as you make it personally. A stock is not a ticker symbol; it is a stake in an underlying business. So now that youve got an truly immutable public data store, what do you do with it? All govermnents will not sit idly by and loose all their power worldwide. Meanwhile in China there are multiple football fields sized bitcoin farms. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. Ryan Thomas Fiat, at least from most major industrialised nations, is less volatile for one thing. We end up in Utopia? No doubt it will crash but I think it still has room to go. Speculation is great. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Mr Money Mustache 26-02-2023 Hobbyen. You should have just invested in winning lottery tickets instead of bitcoin, they have had a much much higher rate of return. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Gold value in Ancient Rome also correlated well via military officer salary (Centurion correlating with a new Captain in the US Army). You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. Just Keep Calm, and Keep Investing Despite all of this hype and all the froth in stock prices, a true investor's plan can remain stable through the seasons. Or sell half of GBTC. After all, the ONLY thing that gives a fiat money its value is what someone else is willing to give you for it. What a bargain! Unfortunately for most people that think they are missing out on everything, they are being lead to Coinbase and only buying the cheapest tokens available, namely Litecoin because Ethereum and Bitcoin have gotten so expensive. There is no intrinsic value in ALL FIAT CURRENCIES. 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